Galaxy Digital research lead Alex Thorn believes Bitcoin's market bottom has officially formed, citing a historical technical metric following the cryptocurrency's recovery to the $80,000–$81,000 price zone. In a research note published by Galaxy, Thorn emphasized that Bitcoin regaining its 50-week moving average after spending 20+ weeks below it has historically never been followed by a lower low.
The 50-Week Moving Average Signal
Thorn pointed to historical technical data showing that every time Bitcoin (BTC) reclaims its 50-week moving average after spending at least 20 consecutive weeks beneath it, the asset has avoided forming a new macro bottom. With BTC holding resilient around $81,000 following the latest Federal Reserve policy update, Thorn noted that remaining long on Bitcoin right now is considered a contrarian stance by mainstream market participants.
This price stability arrives following extended periods of volatility across crypto markets, such as during recent liquidity crunches seen when BTC, ETH, and XRP plunged in broader market dips. Despite ongoing macro anxieties, Thorn highlighted that positioning remains light, observing that broader retail enthusiasm has not yet flooded back into the asset class.
13F Filings Reveal Institutional Shift
Analysis of institutional 13F filings reveals a clear structural rotation among market participants holding Bitcoin. While hedge funds have reduced exposure or exited positions, sovereign wealth funds and institutional wealth managers have stepped in as active net buyers.
Key takeaways from Galaxy's research note include:
- Technical Bottom Signal: Reclaiming the 50-week moving average after 20+ weeks below it has 100% historical accuracy in preventing subsequent lower lows.
- Resilience at $80K: Bitcoin continues to defend the $80,000 to $81,000 price range despite macroeconomic headwinds.
- Institutional Rotation: 13F filings show hedge funds exiting while sovereigns and wealth managers accumulate spot positions.
- Debasement Drivers: Expansion of U.S. national debt and massive capital expenditure on artificial intelligence infrastructure serve as currency debasement catalysts strengthening Bitcoin as digital gold.
Thorn also highlighted how institutional strategies—such as corporate balance sheet programs led by companies like Strategy and its ongoing Bitcoin treasury growth—continue to reshape market structure alongside tokenization developments and the basis trade. Additionally, growing AI cyber threats underscore the fundamental importance of self-custody solutions, hardware wallets, and multisig security setups.
Why It Matters
Galaxy's technical analysis provides a data-driven counter-narrative to prevailing market uncertainty and macroeconomic fears. The capital rotation from short-term speculative hedge funds into long-term sovereign entities and wealth managers indicates that Bitcoin's underlying holder base is solidifying while prices consolidate around $81,000. If historical moving average trends remain intact, this reclaim signals that future market pullbacks will likely represent higher-low consolidation phases rather than the beginning of a deeper macro downtrend.
