Asset manager Bitwise has raised its 10-year Bitcoin (BTC) price forecast from $1.3 million to $1.6 million by 2036, despite the asset suffering a major market contraction that dragged prices below $59,000.
Addressable Market Expands to $110 Trillion
In the updated Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan and Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen utilized the firm's core valuation framework while integrating recent macroeconomic data. Although Bitcoin plunged more than 50% between October 2025 and June 2026 to a low under $59,000, the updated model increased Bitcoin's projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 28.3% to 34.3%.
According to Hougan, the higher target stems directly from significant growth in Bitcoin's potential total addressable markets. Driven by ongoing concerns over fiat currency debasement and persistent inflation, Bitwise increased its 10-year store-of-value market estimate from $91 trillion to $110 trillion. Simultaneously, the firm raised its projection for the global institutional investment market from $216 trillion to $303 trillion.
Institutional Infrastructure Strengthens Market Share
While macroeconomic pressures—including stubborn inflation, rising interest rates, Middle East conflicts, and AI bubble concerns—raised initial fears of a reduced target, Bitwise retained its market capture assumptions. The report noted that key distribution partners, including wealth management giants Wells Fargo and Merrill Lynch, have steadily expanded access, while sovereign wealth funds and central banks continue exploring asset allocations.
Although capital flows have favored traditional assets during recent volatility, Bitcoin's maximum peak-to-trough decline of 53% was shallower than losses observed in prior bear markets, mirroring past trends where Bitcoin recovery history signals resilience. Furthermore, Bitcoin's share of the global store-of-value market has grown from less than 1% a decade ago to over 5% today.
Key Takeaways
- Upgraded Forecast: Bitwise raised its 2036 Bitcoin price target to $1.6 million, increasing its projected CAGR to 34.3%.
- Expanded TAM: The 10-year store-of-value market forecast expanded to $110 trillion, alongside a $303 trillion institutional market estimate.
- Maturing Asset: Bitcoin's peak-to-trough fall was capped at 53%, while its store-of-value market share expanded to over 5%.
Why It Matters
Bitwise's decision to raise its long-term target during a severe price drawdown highlights how macro monetary expansion accelerates Bitcoin's addressable opportunity faster than short-term spot market crashes shrink it. Even as gold captures the immediate flight-to-safety flows, structural integration into major financial institutions like Wells Fargo and Merrill Lynch establishes an enduring baseline for institutional adoption. Investors should watch whether wealth management platforms transition from offering client access to actively allocating model portfolio weightings over the coming years.
