Bloomberg senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone has warned that Bitcoin (BTC) could plummet to $10,000 if the S&P 500 undergoes a sustained 20% correction, describing the cryptocurrency's recent recovery as a "bear market bounce."
Equity Correlation and Underperformance
McGlone, who has maintained a bearish outlook since Bitcoin crossed $100,000 in early 2025, argued that the asset has lost its speculative edge following the debut of spot Bitcoin ETFs. He labeled Bitcoin a "stock puppet," highlighting its poor relative performance against traditional equities. Year-to-date, Bitcoin has declined 7% compared to a 13% gain for the S&P 500, while over a two-year horizon, Bitcoin advanced 21% versus a 47% surge in the S&P 500. Furthermore, McGlone dismissed long-term 10% annual return forecasts from BlackRock and JPMorgan, calling the Wall Street firms sell-side entities that are merely "trying to sell products."
Market Price Action and ETF Flows
Bitcoin recently traded near $82,000, reflecting a 1% 24-hour decline, a 30-day drop of roughly 6%, and a 35% discount from its all-time high of over $126,000. After touching a two-week peak, price was rejected just under $85,000 on Wednesday, roughly one week after falling below $80,000 on inflation fears. Spot Bitcoin products saw three consecutive days of inflows—including $528 million on October 21, the highest since September 22 when inflows hit near $715 million. However, institutional sentiment reversed as US Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $635 million in single-day outflows, with BlackRock's IBIT responsible for at least $254 million of the redemptions.
Technical Signals and Key Takeaways
Despite the macro warning, some technical indicators suggest short-term stabilization. Market analyst Ali Martinez noted that the TD Sequential indicator printed a buy signal near $85,000, while analyst Joel Gerla stated that the chart structure remains bullish above $80,000, warning that "lose $80K, and it weakens."
- Bloomberg's Mike McGlone projects a potential drop to $10,000 if US stocks drop 20%.
- Bitcoin is down 7% YTD, lagging the S&P 500's 13% advance.
- BlackRock's IBIT led a single-day ETF reversal with over $254 million in outflows.
Why It Matters
McGlone's perspective highlights growing concern that Bitcoin's financialization through spot ETFs has bound its valuation directly to broader equity market liquidity rather than uncorrelated digital gold dynamics. If legacy financial markets experience a protracted sell-off, crypto assets could face heavy liquidations. Investors will be closely watching whether BTC can defend key structural support at $80,000 amid tighter central bank policy.
