Wall Street analysts remain bullish on Strategy (MSTR) despite the company facing potential exclusion from major MSCI indexes, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju.
Wall Street Price Targets Rise Despite Outflow Threat
Following MSCI's decision to finalize rules targeting non-operating companies, JPMorgan analysts estimated that Strategy's exclusion from the Global Investable Market Indexes could trigger approximately $2.8 billion in passive outflows. The final list of affected entities—which could also impact firms like Metaplanet—is set to be announced on November 11, with the updated methodology taking effect at the close of November 30.
However, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju argued that the potential index removal is a fund-flow event that has already been priced into MSTR's valuation. Ki pointed out that Wall Street firms continue to raise price targets, citing Citigroup at $240, Barclays at $175, and B. Riley at $195. Ki added that Strategy's market-cap-to-Bitcoin-NAV ratio (mNAV) remains at roughly 1.0x, its preferred stock STRC trades near par, and the firm maintains $3.75 billion in reserves to support its dividend obligations.
Saylor Dismisses Index Rules as MSTR Shares Fall
Speaking to Bloomberg before the rules were finalized, Strategy co-founder and former CEO Michael Saylor stated the decision was "not that important to us," noting that index-controlled capital is relatively small for the firm. Saylor criticized MSCI's reasoning, asserting that recognizing traditional assets like oil, natural gas, land, or machinery while excluding Bitcoin is a subjective value judgment. The announcement builds on recent developments where MSCI finalized non-operating rules for digital treasury companies.
Despite Saylor's statements, MSTR shares experienced a significant sell-off, dropping from a Thursday peak above $151 to close under $137 on Friday. Strategy remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, carrying 848,250 BTC following its latest purchase announced on October 12.
Key Takeaways
- JPMorgan estimates Strategy faces $2.8 billion in passive outflows if removed from MSCI indexes.
- Ki Young Ju highlighted Wall Street targets up to $240 and a $3.75 billion dividend reserve.
- MSTR stock fell from $151 to under $137, while Strategy maintains 848,250 BTC.
Why It Matters
While a $2.8 billion passive outflow presents a concrete short-term headwind, Wall Street analysts appear focused on Strategy's core balance sheet fundamentals rather than benchmark inclusion. By maintaining strong dividend coverage and an mNAV near 1.0x, the company continues to attract high equity price targets from major investment banks. Market participants should monitor the official November 11 MSCI index release to assess the final list of excluded corporate treasuries ahead of the November 30 implementation date.
