The S&P 500 bull market reaches its four-year anniversary on Monday, having surged 119% from its October 12, 2022 closing low of 3,577.03 to hit an all-time record close of 7,818.93 on Oct. 6.
Historical Track Record of Four-Year Bull Markets
Analysis conducted by Daniel Sparks of Motley Fool, utilizing data from investment research firm Yardeni Research, identifies six previous bull market runs that successfully reached the four-year mark. Historical performance following this milestone shows significant variance:
- 1957 Run: The shortest post-anniversary rally, lasting roughly seven weeks and gaining 7% before peaking.
- 1982 and 2002 Runs: Both extended to approximately age 5, with the 2002 run gaining 16% after its fourth birthday.
- 2009 Run: Lasted nearly 11 years, with the index more than doubling after turning 4.
- 1987 Run: Persisted for over 12 years, quadrupling in value after reaching the four-year mark.
Despite these historical extensions, four of the six instances were eventually followed by bear markets that dragged the S&P 500 below its fourth-birthday closing level. For example, investors who bought into the market in October 2006 faced drawdowns of roughly 50% at the March 2009 trough, excluding dividends. A separate methodology dates the current rally from April 2025—when intraday losses surpassed 20% before recovering—which would make the current run roughly 18 months old rather than four years.
Valuations and Current Market Mechanics
Financial data provider FactSet indicates that the S&P 500 currently trades at approximately 26 times past-year earnings, exceeding its 10-year average trailing metric of 23.6. However, valuation metrics based on projected earnings over the next 12 months place the index much closer to its historical 10-year average. The index narrowly avoided a formal bear market in 2025 when it suffered an 18.9% closing drop, staying just clear of the conventional 20% threshold.
Macroeconomic conditions continue to influence equities across broader capital markets, similar to how rising Treasury yields pressure market stability and broader tech stock benchmarks like the Nasdaq index.
Key Takeaways
- The S&P 500 gained 119% between its Oct. 12, 2022 low of 3,577.03 and its Oct. 6 record close of 7,818.93.
- Historical comparisons show six previous runs reached age 4, ranging from the 1957 run lasting 7 weeks longer to the 1987 run lasting over 12 years.
- Trailing valuations sit at 26 times earnings versus the 10-year average of 23.6, while an 18.9% closing decline in 2025 nearly broke the rally.
Why It Matters
This four-year milestone highlights both the resilience of the current macroeconomic expansion and the heightened valuation risks confronting stock market investors. While historical data proves that mature bull markets can continue quadrupling or doubling, elevated trailing price-to-earnings ratios leave little margin for earnings disappointments or interest rate shocks. Market participants should monitor forward 12-month corporate earnings closely to see if fundamental growth can support elevated stock price multiples.
