Bitcoin momentum turned positive across multiple technical indicators this week after a 10-month bearish stretch, though BTC currently trades down 1.7% over 24 hours at $81,679, below the $83,094 level highlighted by analysts.
Technical Indicators Flip Positive After Months of Bearishness
PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow model, highlighted data from analytics platform Block Horizon showing the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Momentum Oscillator turned green on October 13 at +0.07. This shift ends a red streak that began in late 2025, following a bear market bottom near -0.4—shallower than the troughs of roughly -0.55 seen in 2018 and 2022.
Adding to the momentum, analyst Quinten Francois noted that Bitcoin's weekly moving average convergence divergence (MACD) rose above zero after 44 consecutive negative weeks. A separate 50-week moving average signal also returned last month following a 45-week absence. However, historical precedent shows mixed results: a weekly MACD flip in 2023 preceded a surge from $25,000 to over $70,000, whereas a 2019 flip saw BTC briefly reach $13,800 before plunging below $4,000 by March 2020. The recent price movement follows market shifts where CoinShares analyzed Bitcoin's drop to $81,473.
Debate Over the Four-Year Cycle and Market Sentiment
Eric Crown of BeInCrypto’s Market Intelligence Expert Council argues that Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle is broken. He outlined two scenarios: either BTC bottomed early when it touched $57,800 on July 1, or it will bottom later than the traditional schedule pointing to an autumn 2026 bottom. Analyst Benjamin Cowen previously targeted an October cycle bottom before conceding in September that his bearish call failed. Meanwhile, alternative frameworks continue to circulate as some analysts explore eight-year cycle models targeting $350K.
Sentiment among market observers has shifted rapidly. CryptoQuant’s Analyst Consensus Index, derived from 164 analysts, climbed from -18.3 on July 2 to +49.2 by October 13, with the share of bullish analysts rising from 37% to 84%. Despite this optimism, BTC remains down roughly 6% from its late-September peak near $87,000.
Key Takeaways
- MVRV Oscillator: Turned positive at +0.07 on October 13 after remaining negative since late 2025.
- Weekly MACD: Crossed above zero following 44 consecutive negative weeks.
- Analyst Sentiment: CryptoQuant's consensus index reached +49.2, with 84% of 164 surveyed analysts turning bullish.
- Price Level: BTC trades at $81,679, sitting 6% below its late-September high near $87,000.
Why It Matters
The alignment of on-chain momentum, technical MACD flips, and overwhelmingly bullish analyst sentiment creates a setup where market positioning could face a test. If the traditional four-year halving cycle has indeed broken down, price action will likely be driven by institutional liquidity and macroeconomic factors rather than predictable calendar dates. Market participants should monitor whether BTC can break back above $87,000 to confirm structural continuation or if crowded bullish sentiment triggers a consolidation phase.
