Bitcoin Faces Second Consecutive October Decline as Spot Demand Drops

Bitcoin is heading toward its second consecutive October loss, falling 3.3% as of October 28 to trade near $81,350, down from its September close of $83,570. According to data from CryptoQuant, the decline breaks historically strong seasonal performance, as Bitcoin logged positive October returns every year from 2020 to 2024 with average gains of roughly 18%, before recording a 3.8% loss in October 2025. ## Weakening On-Chain Demand and Coinbase Discount Spot buying activity has dropped significantly throughout the month. CryptoQuant's 30-day apparent demand metric dipped to -76,000 BTC on October 25 and has stayed in negative territory daily since October 14, showing that buyers are absorbing fewer coins than are issued into circulation. In the U.S., buying pressure has stalled as Bitcoin clings to key price levels. The Coinbase Premium, measuring the price disparity between Coinbase and Binance, remained negative all month, sinking to -0.146 on October 24—its lowest mark since late June. For October, the premium averaged -0.093, approximately three times the level seen in September. ## Shrinking Trader Margins and Critical Technical Support Reduced demand has significantly squeezed profit margins for short-term holders. Unreleased paper profits for short-term traders plunged from approximately 33% in September to 8%. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index slid from 90 in late September and early October down to 60 starting October 19. Although six of the index's ten metrics remain positive—keeping the market in what analysts call a 'bullish, cooling' state—a drop to 50 or below would signal a broader loss of momentum while markets weigh broader economic guidance. As selling pressure continues, Bitcoin is approaching three critical support thresholds located within roughly 10% of its October 25 price: - 365-day moving average: $77,585 - Short-term trader cost basis: $74,041 - 200-day moving average: $73,028 ## Why It Matters The failure to achieve an 'Uptober' rally for two consecutive years highlights a structural shift in seasonal crypto market dynamics. As institutional spot demand weakens and U.S. Coinbase buying turns negative, Bitcoin's reliance on retail leverage becomes riskier near key support zones. A breakdown below the $74,041 cost basis could trigger capitulation among recent buyers, turning the current 'bullish cooling' phase into a prolonged trend reversal.