A massive 135,000 Bitcoin (BTC) in options contracts, with a combined value of $10.9 billion, are set to expire on Deribit at 8 AM UTC on October 30, testing spot market stability at the end of the month.
Key Takeaways
- $10.9 billion in 135,000 BTC options expire today alongside $776 million in Ethereum (ETH) contracts, bringing the total notional value to $11.67 billion.
- Bitcoin's max pain level sits at $78,000, supported by a put/call ratio of 0.53 showing call options outnumbering puts nearly two to one.
- Ethereum's max pain stands at $2,500 with a 0.77 put/call ratio, while ETH spot trades near $2,200.
Deribit Expiry Clustered Near $78,000 Max Pain
Data shared by Unfolded on X reveals that Bitcoin's max pain level—the strike price causing maximum losses for option buyers—matches the current spot price right around $78,000. Earlier in the week, Bitcoin reached $81,700 following the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates after September's rate hike, before dropping to $80,500.
Selling pressure escalated earlier after Bitcoin dropped to $76,000 in the wake of a $6.3 billion hack on Binance. Bitcoin is down 6% over the last 30 days and sits 38% below its all-time high of over $126,000. Unfolded's data shows the largest call concentrations piled up at $95,000 and $100,000 strike prices, while put options cluster between $70,000 and $75,000.
In addition to BTC, $776 million in Ethereum options are expiring. ETH trades near $2,200, down 16% over 30 days and 43% over the past year, sitting well below its $2,500 max pain point.
Midterm Hedging vs. Year-End Bullishness
Market analyst Dennis Liu highlighted heavier put buying relative to calls for the upcoming November 6 expiry during US midterm election week, as downside protection commands a premium. Liu expects Bitcoin's trading range to widen from $77,600–$82,400 today to $75,200–$85,100 by November 6.
Longer-dated contracts show stronger bullish bias, with 1.7 calls per put for November 27 and 1.5 for December 25. Liu noted, "I'm not expecting a weekly close below 75K. If we get a midterm drawdown, that's the downside risk I'm willing to swallow. If there's no drawdown at all, maybe we stop at 78K and just go up."
Why It Matters
Today's large options expiry anchors Bitcoin near the $78,000 level because spot prices are sitting directly on max pain, minimizing payouts for option sellers. While traders are purchasing short-term put protection ahead of political uncertainty during midterm week, the heavy concentration of call options targeting $95,000 to $100,000 shows institutional traders remain positioned for a strong Q4 recovery.
