Bitcoin (BTC) may be in the early stages of a broader bullish move following a 36% rally over the past three months and a 20% gain in August, according to CappThesis founder and president Frank Cappelleri. Writing for CNBC Pro on Oct. 1, the technical analyst outlined three core signals indicating that recent price action differs from previous failed market bounces.
Working Breakouts and Historical Chart Patterns
Cappelleri noted that technical breakouts are successfully delivering higher prices again, contrasting with three similar pattern failures observed between late 2025 and early 2026. While failed breakouts typically characterize market downtrends, the successful summer pattern setup led directly to August's expansion, signaling a healthier underlying market structure.
Furthermore, Bitcoin's current weekly price behavior closely mirrors the transition seen from 2022 into 2023. During that period, weekly moving averages that previously capped upside moves flattened and turned upward, offering dynamic support for price pullbacks before fueling an advance into late 2025. On long-term charts, Bitcoin's summer rebound initiated near a rising trendline extending back to 2017, a structural level that triggered significant multi-month rallies during three prior retests.
Volume Revival Meets Macro Headwinds
Trading activity supported the technical recovery, with CryptoQuant volume revival data confirming a rebound in exchange trading volume throughout August. This activity comes as Bitcoin breaks historical seasonal trends despite broader macroeconomic headwinds.
However, monetary policy uncertainty remains an obstacle. CME FedWatch data recorded market-implied odds of an October Federal Reserve interest rate hike at 68.1% as of Sept. 28. Whether technical breakouts can hold firm against rising rate hike risks will determine if Bitcoin's trajectory marks a sustained trend change or a temporary advance.
Key Takeaways
- 36% Quarterly Gain: Bitcoin surged 36% over three months, driven by a 20% gain in August.
- Validated Breakouts: Price patterns are holding for the first time since multiple failures between late 2025 and early 2026.
- Multi-Year Support: Rebounds originated near a long-term trendline established in 2017.
- Fed Hike Risk: CME FedWatch placed October rate hike odds at 68.1% on Sept. 28.
Why It Matters
Cappelleri's technical analysis highlights a potential structural shift from defensive rallies to macro accumulation for Bitcoin. If technical breakouts hold despite elevated Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, Bitcoin could demonstrate relative decoupling from traditional macro headwinds. Market participants will watch whether weekly moving averages continue acting as support to validate long-term bullish continuation.
