Cryptocurrency analyst Dennis Liu, known as VirtualBacon on X, stated that a full-fledged altcoin season has not yet begun because the average altcoin is only 10% ahead of Bitcoin (BTC) since the primary asset reached its market bottom.
Key Takeaways
- The average altcoin has outperformed Bitcoin by only 10% since BTC's bottoming phase.
- Isolated performers include Zcash up over 726% in a year and Quant, which rallied 530% from $59 to $370 before settling near $255.
- Bitcoin trades between $85,000 and $86,000 with a $1.72 trillion market capitalization and 58% market dominance.
Total 2-to-Bitcoin Ratio Highlights Market Stagnation
Liu's analysis relies on the Total 2-to-Bitcoin ratio, which measures the aggregate value of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin against BTC. He characterized the chart as "very flat," indicating that overall market gains are concentrated in a few specific tokens rather than across the broad altcoin sector.
While Zcash has performed well since the start of the year and Venice and Quant have posted significant gains, major high-cap tokens have struggled to outrun Bitcoin. XRP has not outperformed BTC, while Ethereum, Solana, and BNB are barely leading it. Liu noted that because of this narrow performance, altcoins remain relatively cheap and the market is nowhere close to a true altseason.
Bitcoin Key Levels and Altcoin Performance
Bitcoin was rejected at $87,000 on Monday, bouncing off $85,000 to trade between that level and $86,000 with a total market dominance of nearly 58%, matching dynamics seen when Bitcoin slips below $86,000. Liu highlighted $83,000 as Bitcoin's daily pivot point, explaining that a drop beneath it could test bull market support at $78,000, whereas staying above $83,000 leaves room to clear $87,000.
Large-cap altcoins showed modest movements over 24 hours. ETH held above $2,700, mirroring conditions described when Ethereum holds $2,700, and XRP traded at $1.50. BNB, Solana, Dogecoin, and Chainlink edged slightly lower. Meanwhile, RAIN fell over 7%, while FIL and ZRO recorded 24-hour gains of 8% and 10%, respectively.
Why It Matters
Traders relying on historical market cycles may face unexpected risks by waiting for Bitcoin to hit new record highs before allocating into altcoins. While that sequence held true during the 2017 and late 2020 market cycles, it failed in 2024 when BTC reached new highs while many altcoins continued to depreciate against it. Without broad capital rotation across the Total 2-to-Bitcoin ratio, outperformance remains confined to specific narrative-driven tokens rather than a systemic altcoin rally.
