Bitcoin slipped below $86,000 on Tuesday following a $90 million single-day outflow from U.S. spot ETFs, pausing a three-week rally that saw the cryptocurrency gain more than 12%.
ETF Outflows Interrupt Inflow Streak
According to data from SoSoValue, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $241.09 million in net inflows last week, marking a third consecutive week of net positive institutional allocation. However, momentum halted on Monday as the funds logged $90 million in net outflows, putting immediate pressure on spot prices.
The retreat coincides with macroeconomic adjustments following weak U.S. employment data. Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed September nonfarm payrolls rose by just 29,000, missing forecasts of 90,000, while August figures were revised down to 133,000 from 162,000. Consequently, CME FedWatch data indicated the probability of an October Federal Reserve interest rate hike fell sharply to 18.3%, down from approximately 70% the week prior. Shifts in macroeconomic conditions continue to influence Bitcoin's rate outlook and risk appetite.
Technical Targets and Key Indicators
On weekly charts, Bitcoin faces critical resistance at $87,599, representing the 50% retracement level between the August 2024 low of $49,000 and the October 2025 peak of $126,199. A sustained close above this target opens a path toward the 100-week simple moving average near $89,832 and the $90,000 psychological barrier. Recent trading activity mirrors broader market shifts seen in derivatives and spot CVD metrics.
Key technical and market figures include:
- Immediate Support: $85,000, followed by the 50-day EMA at $79,189, the $78,490 Fibonacci level, and the 50-day SMA near $77,201.
- Deeper Technical Floors: The 100-day EMA at $75,367, the 200-day EMA near $74,994, and horizontal support at $66,500 and $62,300.
- Momentum Metrics: Weekly RSI stands at 62, daily RSI sits near 67, and the daily MACD histogram has eased toward zero.
- Economic Highlights: September payrolls missed at 29,000 vs 90,000 expected, pushing October rate hike odds down to 18.3%.
Why It Matters
This pull-back reflects a sensitive balance between institutional ETF flows and macroeconomic monetary policy shifts. While three straight weeks of positive ETF inflows demonstrate resilient baseline demand, daily outflows highlight that institutional capital remains quick to take profits near major technical hurdles like $87,599. If Bitcoin holds $85,000, the broader bullish structure remains intact, positioning the market for another test of $90,000 as rate-hike expectations recede.
