Strategy's Bitcoin credit calculator generated an illustrative STRC perpetual preferred stock price of $210.90 on Oct. 2, despite displaying a market price input of $99.50 and an issuer redemption option of $101. The valuation gap highlights how the issuer's internal pricing formula models credit risk differently from public secondary market trading.
Deconstructing the $210.90 STRC Valuation Formula
At approximately 08:18 UTC on Oct. 2, the dashboard calculated the theoretical output using a Bitcoin price input of $86,593, an assumed annual return of 10%, and a volatility parameter of 40%. The published formula takes a $12 annual dividend—reflecting a 12% annual rate—and divides it by the sum of a 5.23% risk-free yield and a 46 basis point modeled credit spread known as BTC Credit. This formula ($12 ÷ (5.23% + 0.46%)) produces the rounded $210.90 output.
In contrast, the actual secondary market spread displayed on the dashboard was 684 basis points. By replacing the market's 684 basis point risk spread with its modeled 46 basis point spread, the formula lowers the effective discount rate and elevates the model output. Strategy explicitly noted on its dashboard that the calculated result is neither a fair-value determination nor a price target, warning users that displayed market prices can be stale and non-executable.
Redemption Terms and Schedule Changes
Under STRC's amended certificate of designations, Strategy holds an option to execute an optional redemption at $101 per share—or a higher announced amount—plus accumulated unpaid dividends. A partial optional redemption requires that at least $250 million of stated amount remains outstanding and uncalled, accompanied by a notice period between three business days and 60 calendar days.
Dividend delivery terms have also evolved following an amended certificate effective June 30, 2026, which established twice-monthly distributions. An Oct. 1 regulatory filing revealed that a Sept. 30 board action preserved the 12% annual rate for periods starting Oct. 16, declaring a $0.50 payment for the semi-monthly period ending Oct. 31. Shareholders are scheduled to vote Oct. 28 on a daily-dividend proposal; if approved, the first daily record date will occur Nov. 1, followed by a Nov. 2 payment.
Key Takeaways
- Model Spread Disparity: The formula outputs $210.90 by using a 46 bps BTC Credit spread instead of the market's 684 bps spread.
- Issuer Redemption Option: Strategy can redeem STRC at $101 plus unpaid dividends, provided $250 million remains uncalled.
- Daily Dividend Vote: Shareholders vote Oct. 28 on daily record dates, with the first payout targeted for Nov. 2.
Why It Matters
The distance between Strategy's $210.90 modeled valuation and its $99.50 market input illustrates the gap between theoretical yield modeling and real-world credit pricing. While modeled spreads project low credit risk based on asset coverage assumptions, market participants factor in call risks, liquidity constraints, and macroeconomic yields while Bitcoin holds the mid-$80K range. Understanding these model mechanics is vital for investors navigating crypto-collateralized corporate equity instruments.
