Dogecoin (DOGE) is trading beneath $0.08 following a flash crash recovery, even as technical indicators and on-chain metrics point to a potential rebound toward $0.16–$0.17. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez informed his nearly 170,000 followers on X on October 16, 2026, that key metrics suggest the meme coin could see major upside if critical support holds.
Technical Buy Signal and Heavy Support
According to Martinez, the TD Sequential indicator flashed a buy signal on the daily chart near $0.081. Commenting on the technical pattern, Martinez noted, "The indicator has marked potential turning points before for Dogecoin. This signal is especially interesting because of where it appeared." UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data shows that roughly 36 billion DOGE were traded around the $0.081 level, confirming significant historical volume at that price.
Furthermore, on-chain data indicates investors have added 600 million DOGE to their wallets since October 12. If Dogecoin reclaims and holds $0.081, Martinez projects a profit-taking target between $0.16 and $0.17. However, cost-basis metrics reveal 12 billion DOGE were acquired near $0.16 and another 14 billion DOGE near $0.17, creating massive supply concentration ahead.
Key Takeaways:
- Technical Signal: Daily TD Sequential buy signal flashed near $0.081.
- On-Chain Support: URPD data identifies 36 billion DOGE traded around $0.081.
- Recent Accumulation: Investors acquired 600 million DOGE since October 12.
- Overhead Resistance: Combined 26 billion DOGE sit at cost bases between $0.16 and $0.17.
Market Headwinds and ETF Inflows
Despite positive technical setup, Dogecoin faces broader market challenges. The asset has dropped out of the top 10 digital assets by market capitalization, and demand for spot DOGE ETFs remains constrained with virtually non-existent net inflows. Broader crypto market sentiment has cooled since Bitcoin reached $87,000, with several altcoins facing heavy losses alongside a recent flash crash recovery.
Why It Matters
While historical metrics like the TD Sequential offer key structural reference points, expecting a 100% price surge under prevailing market conditions warrants caution. The heavy concentration of 26 billion tokens bought between $0.16 and $0.17 creates a formidable sell wall that could stall upward momentum. Without sustained spot ETF inflows or renewed retail momentum across the meme coin sector, technical rallies may struggle to break long-term overhead resistance.
