Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $85,276, up 0.83% over 24 hours, remaining below the $86,000 level seen before the U.S. payrolls release as traders evaluate whether spot market buying will sustain its recovery.
- $50 million in short liquidations occurred in a ten-minute window at 04:20 UTC on Oct. 2 prior to the jobs report.
- Futures open interest fell $1.5 billion after briefly expanding post-release.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $102 million in net inflows on Oct. 1, according to Farside Investors.
Futures Liquidation Drives Early Spike
According to an Oct. 3 study by Glassnode, expectations for an additional quarter-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the Oct. 28 meeting fell from 66% on Sept. 28 to 22% by 15:00 UTC on Oct. 2. The shift in sentiment followed the September employment report, which showed 29,000 payroll gains and an unemployment rate of 4.2%, leaving the current target range at 3.75%-4% set on Sept. 16.
However, much of Bitcoin's advance before the employment report was driven by derivatives liquidations. Glassnode recorded $50 million of short liquidations in ten minutes at 04:20 UTC on Oct. 2. Futures open interest grew by $2.1 billion—or 2.5% measured in coins—in the 24 hours prior to payrolls before dropping $1.5 billion after an initial post-release rise. By 15:40 UTC, Bitcoin fell more than 1% below its pre-release level as traders navigated broader Fed policy and liquidity direction.
Spot Demand and Institutional Volume Baseline
Institutional fund activity provided a separate signal ahead of the employment data. Figures from Farside Investors indicate U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs registered net inflows of $102 million on Oct. 1, reversing redemptions from the prior session. Complete Friday flow figures will show whether institutional investors maintained buying pressure following the jobs report, matching previous patterns of weekly ETF fund flows.
Trading participation remains light across exchanges. In a Sept. 30 study, Glassnode calculated combined spot-exchange and U.S. spot-ETF trading volume at approximately $6.4 billion daily, near the bottom of its range since the ETF launches. Concurrently, long-term U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the ten-year yield near 5.2%. Macro economic updates continue on Monday, Oct. 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services report, following an August survey that logged a headline PMI of 55.4, employment at 47.8, and prices at 72.6.
Why It Matters
The gap between rapid futures liquidations and subdued spot exchange volume shows that Bitcoin's push toward $86,000 lacked deep spot market backing. While declining odds of another Fed rate hike reduce immediate monetary tightening pressure, long-term Treasury yields hovering near 5.2% keep broader borrowing costs elevated. Sustained growth above $85,000 requires consistent spot ETF net inflows rather than temporary short squeezes in derivatives markets.
