Bitcoin (BTC) traded around $83,086 at 14:25 UTC on Oct. 7, after sliding below $84,000 while high US Treasury yields presented investors with an interest-bearing alternative. Despite 10-year nominal Treasury yields reaching multi-year highs near 5.3%, historical data shows Bitcoin has surged 84.2% since US spot ETF trading commenced on Jan. 11, 2024.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin gained 84.2% from Jan. 10, 2024 to Oct. 5, 2026, even as 10-year nominal yields rose 127 basis points and real yields rose 113 basis points.
- Daily correlation between Bitcoin returns and 10-year nominal yield changes across 682 matched daily changes post-ETF was +0.054, compared to -0.004 across 2,435 daily changes since Jan. 4, 2017.
- On Oct. 5, 10-year nominal yields hit 5.31% and real yields hit 2.95%—the highest daily readings in data extending back to January 2017.
- Monthly correlations across 32 post-ETF months shifted to +0.207 for nominal yields and +0.126 for real yields.
Yield Surges Challenge Macro Hypotheses
The US 10-year nominal par yield stood at 5.27% on Oct. 6, easing from 5.31% on Oct. 5. Similarly, the 10-year real par yield registered at 2.91% on Oct. 6, following 2.95% on Oct. 5. Both Oct. 5 levels represented peak observations in the daily dataset from January 2017 through Oct. 5, 2026.
While rising yields increase the hurdle rate for speculative assets, data compiled from Coinbase, FRED, and Yahoo Finance reveals that high yields have not blocked Bitcoin's macro expansion. As Bitcoin dropped below $84,000 in recent trading, daily co-movement metrics between crypto and traditional interest rates remain weak. The ICE Currency Index (DXY) daily correlation with Bitcoin post-ETF recorded -0.089, compared to -0.098 across the full 2,435-day sample.
Prior to spot ETF approvals by the SEC on Jan. 10, 2024—which enabled products like BlackRock's IBIT to launch on Nasdaq on Jan. 11, 2024—research from S&P Global noted that rate relationships varied across market cycles without proving causality. Across 116 full months from February 2017 to September 2026, nominal yield changes had a correlation of -0.081, real yields -0.228, and DXY returns -0.164. Across 32 full post-ETF months, those figures shifted to +0.207, +0.126, and +0.002, respectively.
Why It Matters
This data refutes simple assumptions that elevated interest rates automatically crush crypto asset valuations. While macroeconomic pressures like elevated benchmark yields persist—especially when higher input costs cloud rate-cut expectations—institutional adoption via spot ETFs has disrupted standard rate-sensitivity models. Market participants should monitor whether positive monthly correlation shifts endure or represent short-term statistical noise as macro liquidity conditions evolve.
