Bitcoin's on-chain regime model developed by BIT has maintained a 67% net-long position for a second consecutive month, with five key metrics moving into historically bullish territory for the first time since October 2025. The quantitative signal comes despite a recent $7,000 price decline that brought BTC down to approximately $82,000.
Five Indicators Reclaim Bullish Alignment
According to an October 9 report from BIT, the firm's rules-based model previously scaled back from a 100% net-long allocation on October 1, 2025, to 33% on November 1, before dropping to 0% on December 1. After remaining at zero throughout most of the subsequent market drawdown, the allocation shifted back to 67% on September 1, 2026, where it remained through October.
The five indicators entering bullish alignment include:
- Short-Term Realized Price: Currently standing at $74,319, putting Bitcoin above recent buyer cost basis after previously dipping to $112,300 in October 2025 and rising past $68,800 in August 2026.
- True Market Mean: Measuring active capital cost basis at $77,460, below BTC's spot price near $82,000.
- Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV): Reading at 0.20.
- Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL): Turning positive for the first time since October 2025.
- Value Days Destroyed (VDD): Returning to bullish territory as older coin movements normalize.
Macro Headwinds and Key Technical Thresholds
Despite these encouraging technical signals, BIT highlighted that the model remains at 67% rather than fully invested because several underlying metrics have yet to cross their respective confirmation thresholds. The market faces immediate downward pressure following a drop of nearly $7,000 after failing to breach $87,000. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin is down 4.5% over seven days and more than 32% over the past year.
This retreat was exacerbated by US government transfers of BTC to Coinbase Prime, more than $1 billion in realized profit-taking, and significant institutional redemptions. Recent pressure includes Bitcoin ETF outflows reaching $729 million alongside $731 million in spot ETF outflows on October 7 and 8. Furthermore, market participants note that Bitcoin flashes hidden bullish divergence near $82,300. BIT warned that a sustained breakdown below both the $74,319 short-term realized price and the $77,460 True Market Mean would signal that the ongoing recovery has lost structural momentum.
Why It Matters
The alignment of five major on-chain indicators points to underlying network stabilization even as spot prices experience short-term volatility. While ETF flows and government token transfers continue to create immediate selling pressure, structural cost-basis metrics suggest market participants are absorbing supply at higher valuation floors than in previous cycles. Investors should monitor whether BTC maintains structural support above the $77,460 True Market Mean to confirm the longevity of this macro setup.
