XRP is navigating a decisive technical juncture near $1.30 following a rejection at $1.40, leaving prominent market analysts sharply divided on whether the asset will collapse to $0.98 or launch a major upside rally.
On-Chain Indicators Signal Bearish Pressure Toward $0.98
Analyst Ali Martinez outlined a distinctly cautious thesis for the altcoin, pointing to recent on-chain metrics that indicate whale distribution. Data shows that the number of XRP Ledger wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million tokens dropped from 351 to 339 over recent weeks. Furthermore, centralized exchange reserves have surged by 50 million tokens, climbing from 11.003 billion to 11.05 billion XRP.
Martinez highlighted $1.26 as the key line in the sand, representing the lower boundary of a technical channel established in August. Should XRP breach $1.26, Martinez projects an initial drop to $1.11, followed by a potential downward extension to its August low of $0.98—a 22% decline from current support. This comes after recent market volatility where XRP breached $1.30 support during a broader market pullback.
Bullish Case Eyes Triple-Bottom and Weekly Moving Average
Conversely, technical analyst EGRAG CRYPTO maintains an optimistic outlook, suggesting XRP is constructing a triple-bottom chart pattern. In his view, this setup could trigger a massive rally if buyers defend current price levels.
EGRAG identified the 44-week moving average as the primary battlefield between buyers and sellers. A weekly candle close above this moving average would confirm bullish momentum and open the door for a major expansion phase, despite the asset's recent rejection at $1.40.
Key Takeaways
- Whale Holdings Drop: Wallets holding 10M–100M XRP fell from 351 to 339.
- Exchange Inflows Rise: Centralized exchange balances rose by 50 million tokens to 11.05 billion XRP.
- Critical Technical Levels: Downside risk targets $1.26, $1.11, and $0.98, while bulls target a weekly close above the 44-week moving average.
Why It Matters
The diverging views on XRP highlight how delicate altcoin market structure remains during broader crypto market volatility. If large holders continue moving supply to trading venues while demand remains subdued, a breakdown below $1.26 could trigger cascading liquidations down to $0.98. Conversely, reclaiming the 44-week moving average would demonstrate resilient buying interest, signaling that the multi-month consolidation pattern is resolving to the upside.
