XRP extended its price correction on Thursday following three consecutive days of losses, falling to $1.422 and pushing its weekly decline past 6%. The sell-off comes as perpetual futures traders turn net-bearish and a surge in U.S. Treasury yields, alongside geopolitical friction in the Middle East, weighs heavily on risk-asset appetite.
Key Takeaways
- Derivatives flip bearish: CoinGlass reported XRP's funding rate fell to -0.0022% on Thursday after turning negative on Wednesday, while the long-to-short ratio registered at 0.88.
- Macro headwinds tighten: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hovered near 5.30% after reaching 5.35% on Monday, matching historic multi-decade highs.
- Technical levels tested: XRP is testing critical exponential moving average support between $1.400 and $1.389.
Derivatives Signals and Macro Headwinds
Data from CoinGlass reveals that perpetual futures markets have shifted toward bearish positioning. XRP's long-to-short ratio reached 0.88 on Thursday, while the funding rate dipped to -0.0022%, meaning short sellers are currently paying longs to maintain their positions.
At the same time, traditional market pressures continue to build. The U.S. Dollar Index stabilized around 102.24 on Thursday after touching an intraday peak of 102.53 on Monday—its highest mark since early April 2025. Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury held near 5.30%, building on momentum after 10-year Treasury yields topped 5.3% earlier in the week. Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's September 15–16 meeting showed unanimous agreement among officials to hike the benchmark federal funds rate, with a majority expecting another increase before the end of the year to combat persistent inflation.
Geopolitical uncertainty has further dampened institutional risk appetite. Reports indicated the Pentagon directed U.S. Central Command to prepare potential military operations against Iran while President Donald Trump evaluates timing, driving capital toward safe-haven assets.
Technical Support Levels in Focus
Despite recent downside momentum, XRP remains positioned above key daily moving averages. The 50-day EMA near $1.400 provides immediate downside defense, followed closely by the 200-day EMA at $1.389 and the 100-day EMA at $1.336.
Technical indicators show weakening momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 45 and the MACD staying below zero. A failure to defend the $1.400 to $1.389 cluster could open the door for a retest of horizontal support at $1.300, with $1.000 serving as a major downside reference point. Conversely, a reversal higher must clear resistance at $1.671 to open a path toward $1.900, especially as traders track XRP ETF institutional flows for signs of renewed demand.
Why It Matters
This convergence of negative perpetual funding and multi-decade highs in U.S. Treasury yields highlights how tightly crypto asset valuations remain tied to broader macroeconomic policy. With short positions taking the lead in derivatives markets and the Federal Reserve signaling prolonged monetary tightening, digital assets are struggling to find independent bullish catalysts. If XRP fails to hold its $1.400 moving-average support zone in the coming sessions, technical selling could accelerate toward the $1.300 range.
