XRP dropped below its critical $1.300 support level on Thursday, trading near $1.29 as bearish sentiment swept across spot and derivatives markets following macro headwinds. The move came after the Fed held rates at 3.75%-4.00%, maintaining a cautious tone that curbed appetite for risk assets across the board.
Key Takeaways:
- XRP broke below the $1.300 support floor to trade around $1.29 on Thursday.
- CoinGlass data reveals a long-to-short ratio of 0.82, approaching a one-month low.
- Despite short dominance, XRP's funding rate remains positive at 0.0036%, indicating persistent leveraged long positions since October 16.
- Technical resistance sits clustered between the 100-day EMA at $1.333, the 50-day EMA at $1.357, and the 200-day EMA at $1.372.
Derivatives and On-Chain Data Signal Bearish Bias
Data from CoinGlass shows XRP's long-to-short ratio falling to 0.82, approaching its lowest level in over a month. A ratio below 1.0 indicates that short positions significantly outweigh long positions across tracked exchanges. However, XRP's funding rate presents a conflicting signal, staying positive at 0.0036% after turning higher on October 16. This positive rate indicates that leveraged long traders continue paying shorts to maintain their positions, reflecting ongoing demand for bullish leverage despite the lower long-to-short ratio.
Data aggregator CryptoQuant confirms sell-side dominance in both spot and futures markets for XRP. The platform flagged large whale orders and heating market conditions. While large individual orders do not independently prove whether major holders are buying or selling, the accompanying order book imbalance highlights sell-side pressure. Similar conditions were noted in Stellar (XLM) spot and futures markets, where recent price rebounds failed to attract sufficient demand to sustain an upward trend.
Technical Indicators Highlight Critical Resistance Levels
From a technical standpoint, XRP faces a difficult outlook on the daily chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 40, remaining below the neutral 50 threshold and indicating limited buying momentum. On a positive note, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has edged slightly into positive territory, offering an early sign of easing downside momentum.
To improve its technical setup, XRP must overcome a dense resistance zone. Initial overhead pressure rests at the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $1.333, followed by the 50-day EMA at $1.357 and the 200-day EMA at $1.372. Reclaiming this key band would be necessary before testing higher targets at $1.540 and $1.900. Conversely, a daily candle close firmly below $1.300 risks accelerating losses toward lower support levels.
Why It Matters
This breakdown below $1.300 emphasizes how vulnerable altcoins remain to macroeconomic policy shifts and broader market risk aversion. Even as fundamental milestones emerge—such as Moody's granting Ripple's RLUSD an investment-grade rating—short-term price movement remains heavily bound to spot selling and derivatives flows. If XRP fails to reclaim the $1.333–$1.372 resistance cluster shortly, persistent sell-side imbalances could spark further liquidations.
