A new poll from the Financial Times shows U.S. President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 34% just three weeks before the midterm elections, while prediction market Polymarket gives Democrats a 91% chance of taking the House of Representatives on $16.4 million in volume.
Economic and Energy Pressures Weigh on Voters
The survey, conducted online by the FT and Focaldata from October 2 to 4 among 2,275 registered voters, reveals widespread economic dissatisfaction. Roughly one-fifth of respondents approved of Trump's handling of inflation, while over two-thirds stated the economy was heading in the wrong direction. Only 25% backed his management of jobs and the broader economy.
The findings arrived as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported just 29,000 new jobs for September, alongside a combined downward revision of 60,000 jobs for July and August. Inflation also remains a critical voter concern. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 3.4% in the 12 months to August, driven by a 16.3% rise in energy costs and a 27.4% surge in gasoline. Diesel prices surpassed $6 for the first time last month following the start of the Iran war on February 28, prompting Trump to consider curbs on diesel exports. Support for his Iran policy has dropped more than 7 points since May, much like previous geopolitical volatility where oil prices dipped following presidential claims.
Polymarket Traders Price in a Democratic Sweep
According to the survey, 45% of voters believe Trump is harming Republican candidates' chances. The Cook Political Report recently shifted 18 House races toward Democrats, projecting a gain of 9 to 19 seats. Prediction market traders have adjusted odds accordingly.
On Polymarket, the Senate contract gives Democrats a 64% chance of victory—up 19 points since launching in July 2025—after overtaking Republicans in August. A separate balance-of-power contract prices a Democratic sweep of both congressional chambers at 62%, compared to just 9% for a Republican sweep, across $22.2 million in total volume. Despite these shifts, Republican loyalty remains relatively steady: under 70% of Trump's 2024 voters approve of him now (down from 80% in May), but 80% still plan to vote for their local Republican candidate. Trump has also repeated his pledge of a **$5,000
