Ethereum is pacing toward its worst October performance since 2018 as US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $1.35 billion in net outflows and early ICO-era whales transferred over 56,000 ETH worth more than $140 million to exchanges. Trading at $2,328.57 after a 0.95% 24-hour decline, the asset has fallen 13.6% over the month, trailing only the 15.5% drop recorded in October 2018, according to CryptoRank.
ICO-Era Whales and Foundation Wallets Deposit Millions
On-chain analytics platforms flagged more than 10 massive transfers from long-dormant wallets between October 5 and October 29. Four of the five largest deposits were sent directly to Coinbase or Kraken.
The largest single transaction occurred on October 5, when an investor who purchased 170,000 ETH during the 2015 ICO at $0.31 per coin moved 13,330 ETH—valued at $36.37 million—to Coinbase. Three days later, Lookonchain reported that pinosaur.eth unstaked 9,618 ETH before depositing it to Kraken.
Wallets linked to the Ethereum Foundation also transferred approximately 14,770 ETH across three separate days, contributing to pressure previously seen during earlier Ethereum Foundation sales and market dips. Most recently, on October 29, a wallet idle for three years (0x6D30) sent its entire 2,119 ETH balance ($4.99 million) to Coinbase.
Spot ETF Outflows Near Historical Record
The whale movements coincided with persistent institutional capital flight. Per SoSoValue data, US spot Ethereum ETFs posted net outflows on 17 of October's 20 trading days through October 28.
October's cumulative $1.35 billion outflow represents the second-largest monthly reduction on record, remaining just $78 million short of the $1.42 billion record set in November 2025. The single heaviest day of redemptions occurred on October 6, when $201.89 million exited the funds.
Analysts note that while ETH closed higher in 7 of its past 11 Octobers, November historically brings mixed results. Data from CryptoRank shows ETH dropped in 6 of 11 Novembers with a median loss of 5.18%, despite maintaining a positive overall average return of +4.28%.
Technical Support Levels to Watch
With institutional funds exiting and dormant coins hitting exchanges, market analysts are closely monitoring lower price boundaries, similar to recent technical analysis tests near key resistance.
Trader Ted Pillows projected that ETH could revisit the $2,200 mark as a potential bottom zone, noting that reclaiming $2,400 serves as the first major requirement for strength. Analyst More Crypto Online warned that remaining below $2,522 signals further downside risk, with a breakdown under $2,295 opening lower technical support between $2,207 and $1,725.
Key Takeaways
- Worst October in Years: Ethereum has declined 13.6% in October, approaching its 15.5% loss from October 2018.
- Massive ETF Redemptions: US spot Ethereum ETFs lost $1.35 billion across 17 trading days, falling just $78 million short of November 2025's all-time outflow record.
- Whale Liquidation Risk: Dormant wallets, including a 2015 ICO participant, deposited over 56,000 ETH ($140M+) to exchanges.
- Key Technical Zones: Analysts cite $2,200 to $2,207 as crucial support, while a recovery above $2,400 is required to reverse bearish momentum.
Why It Matters
The simultaneous exit of institutional ETF investors and early Ethereum insiders signals a severe loss of conviction across both short-term speculative capital and long-term holders. With spot ETF outflows approaching record levels, the lack of immediate buying demand leaves the market highly vulnerable to supply overhangs from dormant wallets un-staking and locking in profits. If Ethereum fails to hold support near $2,200 entering November, the market risks prolonged downside before institutional inflows can stabilize the asset.
