Cardano (ADA) attempted to steady its price above $0.2200 on Monday following a 12% decline last week and a loss of more than 10% so far in October. Despite the temporary stabilization, weakening derivatives activity and neutral large-wallet positioning indicate limited buying conviction after last week's break below trendline support near $0.2321.
Derivatives Exposure Contracts as Whales Rebalance
Data from CoinGlass reveals that Cardano futures open interest declined to $465.87 million on Monday (down to $475.58 million in aggregate tracked contracts) from $549.14 million last week, marking a reduction of approximately 14.5%. Despite the drop in exposure, the funding rate remained slightly positive at 0.0032%, indicating long positions continue paying shorts in perpetual swap markets. This leaves leveraged longs vulnerable if spot prices slide further, mirroring broader shifts where altcoins pull back below key moving averages.
On-chain figures from Santiment paint a mixed picture regarding large token holders:
- Wallets holding >100M ADA: Controlled 15.99% of circulating supply, up slightly from 15.95% last week.
- Wallets holding 10M–100M ADA: Represented 38.11% of supply, down from 38.27%.
- Key downside targets: The psychological $0.20 level acts as initial support, ahead of the August 30 low at $0.1894.
Technical Outlook and Overhead Resistance
From a technical perspective, ADA continues to trade beneath its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $0.2290 and its 200-day EMA around $0.2395. Momentum indicators reinforce this pressure, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering at 41 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remaining below zero with a negative histogram. Similar tests of key support zones are unfolding across the market, such as XRP testing crucial support zones.
For buyers to spark a trend reversal, ADA must first reclaim the 50-day EMA at $0.2290, clear former trendline support at $0.2321, and break above the 200-day EMA at $0.2395.
Why It Matters
The contraction in ADA open interest combined with divergent whale wallet behavior suggests a lack of aggressive institutional spot buying to cushion further sell-offs. Because perpetual traders maintain a positive funding rate despite persistent price weakness, a breakdown below the $0.2200 threshold risks triggering a cascade of long liquidations. Investors should watch for potential capitulation toward the $0.1894 structural floor, which represents a 14% to 15% downside from current levels.
