In a striking revelation that could reshape the landscape of the cryptocurrency market, Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, recently suggested that the familiar four-year cycle in crypto may be fading into history. Engaging in a thought-provoking discussion with Bitcoin advocate Kyle Chassé and Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, Hougan articulated a bold outlook: a transition towards a longer, more persistent growth phase may be on the horizon for digital assets.
Traditionally, the cryptocurrency market has danced to a four-year rhythm, closely tied to Bitcoin’s halving events, shifts in interest rates, and dramatic industry blowups. However, Hougan argues that these historical patterns are weakening, suggesting that the driving forces behind past market cycles are losing their potency. Could we be witnessing the dawn of a new era in crypto?
As Hougan elaborated in a subsequent post on X (formerly Twitter), each halving event appears to be contributing less to market dynamics than its predecessor. He stated, “The halving is half as important every four years,” pointing to the diminishing returns of block rewards and their impact on overall market supply. As the cryptocurrency ecosystem expands, it seems that halvings alone can no longer ignite the bullish fervor that defined earlier cycles. To understand this better, consider how as block rewards decrease in absolute terms, their significance becomes overshadowed by the burgeoning scale of the digital economy.
Why is the four-year cycle dead?1) The forces that have created prior four-year cycles are weaker:i) The halving is half as important every four years;ii) The interest rate cycle is positive for crypto, not negative (as it was in 2018 and 2022);iii) Blow-up risk is… https://t.co/F9ybjHEeB5— Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) July 25, 2025
Moreover, Hougan observed that the interest rate environment, previously viewed as a bearish factor for cryptocurrencies during downturns like 2018 and 2022, has now turned to become more favorable. This shift towards a more stable macroeconomic landscape could provide the necessary uplift for growth in the crypto sector. The conversation took an even more optimistic turn when he discussed the significant reduction in blow-up risks, thanks to evolving regulatory frameworks and increased institutional engagement.
In this changing landscape, Hougan believes we are witnessing the emergence of new, more durable forces influencing the market. One of the key drivers? An influx of capital into cryptocurrency ETFs. He described this trend as just starting to gain momentum, potentially lasting between five to ten years. The implications of this are exciting; as institutional players, including pensions and endowments, begin to explore crypto exposure in earnest, the future looks bright.
Reflecting on the regulatory landscape, Hougan marked January 2025 as a pivotal moment for cryptocurrency policymaking. The recent passage of the GENIUS Act stands as a landmark shift, paving the way for major financial entities to build products around digital assets. With banks anticipated to invest billions, the regulatory groundwork seems more stable than ever.
🇺🇸 As GENIUS Act passes, regulatory paths stabilize across jurisdictions and digital assets may find stronger footing for long-term planning.#genius #stablecoinhttps://t.co/Hdq2wceITt— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) July 18, 2025
Looking at the broader context, Hougan’s perspective also touches on a new wave of crypto treasury firms that are beginning to hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets. This development, he believes, signals a transition away from the abrupt booms and busts characteristic of past cycles. Rather than entering a supercycle, Hougan envisions a more measured, sustainable growth trajectory. “I think it’s more of a sustained steady boom than a supercycle,” he stated, emphasizing that overarching pro-crypto influences would likely outweigh traditional cyclical patterns.
Fast forward to 2026, Hougan remains optimistic—anticipating it could be a robust year for crypto, despite potential volatility. This optimism isn’t new for Hougan; he’s long believed we are at a tipping point for institutional adoption in the crypto space. Back in December 2024, he highlighted several indications of this shift, including major players like BlackRock advocating for substantial Bitcoin allocations and the burgeoning acceptance of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
🪙 Despite the controversy surrounding Trump’s proposed US crypto reserve allocation, Bitwise CEO @Matt_Hougan believes the “market has this wrong.”#Altcoin #DonaldTrump #Cryptohttps://t.co/rW2zJpsVaC— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) March 5, 2025
With figures such as Donald Trump voicing support for Bitcoin and engaging with the industry, political acceptance is also reaching new heights. Hougan’s forward-looking remarks, indicating that Bitcoin might soar to $200,000 by the end of 2025, underline a strong sentiment building around asset demand from sovereign wealth funds and institutional investors.
As Hougan aptly stated, “The final barrier fell when governments became holders,” suggesting that Bitcoin’s future is not solely about speculation anymore—it’s now fundamentally intertwined with broader financial narratives. The transition we are witnessing marks less of a speculative bubble and more of a structural shift towards a more institutionalized landscape.
So, as we navigate these evolving dynamics, it’s clear that the world of cryptocurrency is in a state of flux. For investors and enthusiasts alike, staying informed and adaptable is key. The next few years promise to unfold with rich opportunities amidst challenges—a captivating era awaits in the digital finance playground.
For those interested in diving deeper into the intricacies of cryptocurrency ETFs and the implications of regulation on investment strategies, consider exploring [CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com) and [CoinTelegraph](https://www.cointelegraph.com) for the latest insights and analyses.