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Russian experts are cautiously optimistic about the potential resurgence of an altcoin season in the cryptocurrency market this year. They anticipate new inflows and increased activity in the altcoin sector, yet they caution that the dynamics of this market phase will differ significantly from past altcoin seasons.
Market Activity Predictions
Vagiz Nurullov, Managing Partner at VG GROUP, highlighted that the summer months are typically less vibrant for trading, particularly in cryptocurrencies. According to a report by Russia’s RBC, he noted that while the summer tends to drag in terms of trading volume and interest, there are signs that the market may begin to heat up as we transition into autumn.
Signs of Change in the Market
Despite the traditionally weak performance of September for crypto, Nurullov suggested that there are positive indicators of renewed market activity. He stated, “We are entering a more active stage of the market,” pointing out an increase in open interest and growing participation from traders who appear to have an increased appetite for risk. Importantly, since the start of October, the market has experienced a 7% rise, despite fluctuations in Bitcoin (BTC) prices.
Bitcoin’s Role in Altseason
Russian analysts emphasize the significant impact of Bitcoin’s performance on the broader cryptocurrency market. They believe that for the altcoin sector to gain momentum, Bitcoin must establish a price consolidation above the $65,200 mark to signal a shift from downward to upward trends. Nurullov noted that although there’s an uptick in market interest, it remains tentative, as the overall market is still “awakening.” He identified several positive catalysts for the anticipated growth, including upcoming repayments to FTX investors, potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, the upcoming US elections, and the typical seasonal trends within the crypto market.
Global Economic Factors at Play
Oleg Kalmanovich, an analyst at Neomarkets, added that the impending Federal Reserve’s first rate cut since 2020 is a pivotal event for the financial landscape, marking the beginning of a new cycle of lower bank interest rates. He explained that such monetary policy changes traditionally act as a strong catalyst for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. Kalmanovich suggested that as large capital starts to shy away from lower-rate dollar deposits, funds could be refocused into altcoins.
Upcoming Events to Watch
Market watchers are encouraged to keep a close eye on upcoming labor market figures, set to be released on October 4, as well as the US presidential election taking place on November 5. Kalmanovich mentioned that historically, the banking sector prepares to infuse the economy with maximum liquidity leading up to significant political events, which could provide a favorable environment for various crypto assets.
Cautious Optimism for Altseason
However, experts urge caution regarding the potential for an altcoin season. Nurullov warns that this forthcoming phase will be markedly different from previous ones. The landscape is now populated by numerous new crypto projects, forcing traders to make more discerning choices. Analysts predict a preliminary wave of growth could emerge by early November, with a second wave potentially following around March, heavily dependent on the results of the US elections.
Potential Winners in the Altcoin Market
Kalmanovich further noted that there remains potential for growth in certain projects that have yet to fully catch up, including NEAR, XRP, and Polkadot (DOT), all of which have lagged in performance this year. These assets are well-positioned to capitalize on favorable economic conditions and lower interest rates in Western economies, which could serve as motivation for a bounce back. Other analysts have echoed similar sentiments, predicting that the next altseason could rival the largest altcoin bull run seen since 2017.
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