Trump’s Rising Odds on Polymarket
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, former President Donald Trump is seeing a significant increase in his lead over Vice President Kamala Harris on Polymarket, a popular platform for betting on political events. After a phase of near balance in mid-August, Trump’s odds have surged to 53% among bettors, compared to Harris’s 47%. This shift illustrates a notable comeback for Trump, who initially faced a dip in support following President Joe Biden’s announcement of his decision not to seek re-election.
The Impact of Biden’s Announcement
Biden’s announcement was expected to briefly enhance Harris’s chances, propelling her into a stronger position. However, Trump’s recent surge has propelled him back to levels observed in early August. This rise in his odds is still below the remarkable 72% peak he enjoyed after the Bitcoin 2024 conference held in late July. Trump’s resurgence is particularly attributed to his growing appeal among crypto investors.
Crypto Enthusiasts and Trump’s Comeback
Trump’s pro-cryptocurrency stance, including his commitment to support the Bitcoin sector and blockchain initiatives, has attracted many within this demographic. In an interesting development on August 27, Trump introduced his fourth NFT collection, titled “Series 4: The America First Collection,” available through Bitcoin Ordinals. He further declared his intention to position the U.S. as the “crypto capital of the planet” if re-elected, signaling his strong alignment with the crypto community.
Challenges for Harris
Conversely, Vice President Harris has struggled to maintain momentum on Polymarket. Following the Democratic National Convention, which notably omitted cryptocurrency from its discussions, Harris’s support faltered. Additionally, the betting odds began to tilt towards Trump as speculation arose regarding the potential withdrawal of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from the race with indications of an endorsement for Trump.
Bloomberg’s Integration of Polymarket Data
In a notable development for financial markets, Bloomberg LP announced its plans to integrate election odds data from Polymarket into its widely utilized Terminal. This move highlights Polymarket’s position as a high-profile platform for tracking real-time election wagers. Operating on the Polygon network, Polymarket enables users to place bets on various outcomes while ensuring transparency through on-chain data and smart contracts for executing trades and payouts.
Concerns About Betting on Elections
As of late August, Polymarket reported impressive trading volumes, nearing $450 million for the month and totaling almost $760 million wagered on the U.S. presidential election. However, this rising trend has raised alarms among lawmakers. A bipartisan group of U.S. Senators and Representatives, including figures such as Senators Elizabeth Warren and Richard Blumenthal, has called for a ban on betting related to the upcoming election. Their concern centers on the risk of billionaires placing large bets to potentially influence election outcomes, which they argue could undermine public trust in the democratic process.