Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, has shared his insights on when the next altcoin season might occur. According to Hayes, altcoin season, a period characterized by significant price surges in alternative cryptocurrencies, is likely to happen when there’s a strong rally in Bitcoin (BTC) that stabilizes or when BTC’s price momentum slows down.
He suggests that when Bitcoin reaches a point of price stability after a significant rally, investors often start to look for higher returns in altcoins, leading to increased activity and price spikes in the altcoin market. Hayes believes this shift happens as traders seek opportunities beyond Bitcoin, driving the next altcoin season.
However, he also notes that the timing can be unpredictable and heavily dependent on broader market conditions and investor sentiment toward Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies.
Alt Season to Follow BTC Rally, Says Arthur Hayes
Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, predicts that altcoin season, often referred to as “alt season,” will follow a significant rally in Bitcoin (BTC). According to Hayes, Solana (SOL) could surge past $250, but its impact on the broader crypto market will be less pronounced compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) due to the large gap in their market capitalizations. He also pointed out that BTC and ETH now have “structural bids” from inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Hayes explained that while Bitcoin and Ether have corrected since April, they avoided the severe downturn seen in the so-called “shitcoin” markets. He believes that alt season will return only after Bitcoin and Ether decisively break through the $70,000 and $4,000 levels, respectively.
Hayes expects Bitcoin to rebound from its recent correction, driven by a decline in the dollar-yen exchange rate, and to rally to $100,000 during the next phase of the bull cycle. This rally, according to Hayes, would extend to all risk assets and be fueled by the U.S. Treasury issuing at least $301 billion worth of treasury bills between now and the end of the year.
He cited recent historical data showing that Bitcoin tends to rise when the U.S. government issues treasury bills, while it trades sideways or dips when treasury bills are withdrawn from the market. These market movements were observed before the dollar-yen exchange rate dropped from 162 to 142, leading to a general selloff in risk assets.
“In any case, I expect that crypto will exit its sideways-to-downward trajectory starting in September. As such, I will take advantage of this late northern hemispheric summer weakness to load up on crypto risk,” Hayes added.
Hayes Sticks to $1M Bitcoin Prediction
Arthur Hayes remains steadfast in his prediction that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $1 million. Interestingly, Hayes plans to step back from the market after the U.S. presidential elections in November. He intends to “watch the chaos” and re-enter the market once the U.S. debt ceiling is raised, expected in January or February.
Hayes anticipates that after the U.S. debt ceiling increases, liquidity from the Treasury will stabilize markets and ignite the main bull run. This, he believes, will propel Bitcoin towards his $1 million target.